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Occupation magazine - Related Issues Home page  back Print  Send To friend Change in Egypt casts dark shadow over Jordan by Salameh Nematt - Bitterlemons February 3, 2011 http://www.bitterlemons-international.org/inside.php?id=1340 The stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process has heightened tension in Jordan over the past several months, deepening local fears that a worsening situation in the occupied Palestinian territories may spill over to the kingdom, where nearly half of the population is of Palestinian origin. Then came the events in Tunisia and Egypt, where the popular uprising there has shaken ruling regimes in the entire region, including Jordan. On Tuesday, King Abdullah sacked his government headed by Prime Minister Samir Rifai, and asked former prime minister and former ambassador to Israel, Marouf Al-Bakhit, to form a new government entrusted with the task of affecting `immediate political and economic reforms`. Articles in this edition • Uneasy lies the head - Asher Susser • Fear and uncertainty - an interview with Azmi Shuaibi • A sense of urgency - Mohammad K. Shiyyab • Change in Egypt casts dark shadow over Jordan - Salameh Nematt • Between the hammer and the anvil - Oraib al-Rantawi It is highly doubtful the new government can offer quick solutions to chronic problems, or whether the king`s pro-active move to contain the popular anger would appease the protesters who have been agitating for change in Amman and several cities in the kingdom for the past three weeks. But one thing is clear: the establishment has been jolted by the recent events, which explains the king`s drastic move to dismiss the government only 40 days after it received an overwhelming vote of confidence from the Lower House of Parliament, with a vote of 111 deputies against nine. Part of the reason why the government received this massive vote of confidence is that most opposition parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood, boycotted the elections, in protest against the electoral law and the government`s refusal to introduce political reforms. This in turn, weakened the credibility of the parliament as well as the whole political establishment in the eyes of most Jordanians. The fact that Jordanians of Palestinian origin have barely ten percent representation in parliament, also raised questions as to the integrity of the election process. With events in nearby Egypt threatening to escalate in view of President Hosni Mubarak`s refusal to step down, the government in Amman may be hesitant to introduce political reforms that would provide a proportionate political representation for Jordanians of Palestinian origin. These are essential for internal stability, especially that the popular protests have been coming from East Bank Jordanians, who fear that such a move would be tantamount to turning Jordan into a Palestinian state. The current polarization of Jordanian society is exacerbated by the Islamic movement, which not only boycotted the elections, but now stands to benefit from the failure of secular regimes, whether in Egypt or Tunisia, or elsewhere in the region, to provide a better life for their citizens. This clearly ties the Jordanian government`s hands in any role it may want to play to support efforts towards relaunching the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. Having supported the Palestinian Authority and President Mahmoud Abbas in its preconditions for launching the peace process, namely a freeze of settlement activity in the Palestinian territories, Jordan`s credibility has been adversely affected by Israel`s failure to respond adequately, and Washington`s inability to exercise enough pressure on the rightist government of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to respond to regional and international demands. As it stands, Amman will be watching developments in Egypt and Israel`s response in view of the possibility that Egypt may take on a more negative view towards peace with Israel in the future. If Cairo moves in that direction, being the first country to sign a peace treaty with Israel, the pressure will increase on Jordan, the only other country to sign such a treaty, to follow suit. This could hardly serve the interests of anybody involved. But when it comes to the survival of regimes, external treaties might become less and less important. -Published 3/02/2011 © bitterlemons-international.org Salameh Nematt is a political analyst and communications strategist. He is the former Washington bureau chief for al-Hayat international daily newspaper, and former international editor of The Daily Beast. ca Links to the latest articles in this section Adam Keller in Berlin, Sept 5-8 Activists protest Tel Aviv arms exhibition: `Arms trade is death trade` In Memeoriam Beate Keller Zilversmidt, 1942-2021